FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees FC Eindhoven travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC OSS are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 1, FC Eindhoven 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 44% versus FC Eindhoven 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 57% | FC Eindhoven 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.21 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.752 / defence 1.218 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.965 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.350. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 FC OSS games / 70 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 29% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 46%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | FC Eindhoven 2.17. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
FC Eindhoven lead the H2H ledger, but FC OSS carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 50% | FC Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 29% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FC OSS 1.21 / FC Eindhoven 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.752 / def 1.218 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.965 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.59
FC Eindhoven xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
FC OSS 2 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven part of?
FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 29% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC OSS and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven in?
FC OSS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (0.75) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
29%
3.51
26%
3.85
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.80
1.59
FC Eindhoven xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
6%
17.12
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.59 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 19W 9D 42L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 23W 24D 23L from 70 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.94 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.15 PPG from 34 outings (12W 3D 19L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 9W 13D 12L from 34 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 19W 9D 42L in their last 70 games (0.94 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 23W 24D 23L in their last 70 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.15 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC OSS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when FC Eindhoven won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 47%, FC Eindhoven 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC OSS) and 53% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Eindhoven in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of FC OSS's recent matches and 59% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC OSS's matches and 53% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do FC OSS and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.21 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.59 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.75 / defence 1.22 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 29% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 46%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 57%, FC Eindhoven 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.94 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.