FC OSS 2-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dordrecht (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Frans Heesen Stadion to face FC OSS in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dordrecht are 1.40 PPG clear of FC OSS in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Dordrecht hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Dordrecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 43% versus Dordrecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 44% | Dordrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.04 xG and Dordrecht 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.649 / defence 1.243 | Dordrecht attack 0.917 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.251. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 FC OSS games / 72 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 27% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 45%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Dordrecht 2.22. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 40% | Dordrecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 27% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG FC OSS 1.04 / Dordrecht 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.649 / def 1.243 | Dordrecht attack 0.917 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Dordrecht xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
FC OSS 2 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is FC OSS vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Dordrecht part of?
FC OSS vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 27% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC OSS and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Record (7 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.92x) against FC OSS's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
27%
3.73
28%
3.57
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.47
1.43
Dordrecht xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.43 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 17W 16D 39L from 72 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 36W 23D 13L across 72 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 14W 5D 17L from 36 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 15W 10D 11L across 36 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.89 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 17W 16D 39L in their last 72 games (0.93 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.31 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.53 PPG.
Have FC OSS or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
3
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Dordrecht have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 50%, Dordrecht 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC OSS) and 61% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC OSS's games and 64% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FC OSS's recent games and 61% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Dordrecht 2-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.04 xG and Dordrecht 1.43 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.65 / defence 1.24 against Dordrecht attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 27% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 45%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 44%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with FC OSS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.