FC Eindhoven 2-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees FC OSS travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Eindhoven, 0 for FC OSS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 58% versus FC OSS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 52% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.27 xG and FC OSS 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.242 / defence 0.889 | FC OSS attack 0.961 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.363. Data: 48 FC Eindhoven games / 48 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 62% | Draw 19% | FC OSS 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | FC OSS 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 62% | Draw 19% | FC OSS 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.27 / FC OSS 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.242 / def 0.889 | FC OSS attack 0.961 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC OSS xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
FC Eindhoven 2 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS part of?
FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 62% chance of winning, FC OSS a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Eindhoven and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.24) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.16
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.43
1.16
FC OSS xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
2%
52.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.16 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 25W 12D 11L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 14W 9D 25L from 48 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 2.08 PPG from 24 outings (15W 5D 4L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 7W 3D 14L from 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and FC OSS in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 25W 12D 11L in their last 48 games (1.81 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 14W 9D 25L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or FC OSS away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.08 PPG; FC OSS away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC OSS in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when FC Eindhoven won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, FC OSS have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and FC OSS?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 67%, FC OSS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC Eindhoven and 67% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC OSS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Eindhoven's games and 54% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 67% of FC OSS's.
Do FC Eindhoven and FC OSS tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out FC OSS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat FC OSS 2-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.27 xG and FC OSS 1.16 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against FC OSS attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 62% | Draw 19% | FC OSS 18%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 52%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC OSS's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.