Excelsior 1-4 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 34 as Excelsior welcome Telstar to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Excelsior — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 6W 2D 2L at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Excelsior have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Excelsior, 0 for Telstar and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 5–2 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Telstar in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 54% versus Telstar 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 67% | Telstar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.28 xG and Telstar 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.422 / defence 0.950 | Telstar attack 0.772 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.414. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Excelsior games / 33 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 65% | Draw 19% | Telstar 16%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Telstar 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 50% | Telstar 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 65% | Draw 19% | Telstar 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG Excelsior 2.28 / Telstar 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.422 / def 0.950 | Telstar attack 0.772 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Telstar xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Telstar kick off?
Excelsior vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Telstar?
Excelsior 1 - 4 Telstar.
Where is Excelsior vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Telstar part of?
Excelsior vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 65% chance of winning, Telstar a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Excelsior and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Telstar?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Telstar in?
Excelsior (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.42) and Telstar's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.24
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.32
1.04
Telstar xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
10%
9.78
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
2%
62.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.04 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior's recent record stands at 19W 5D 9L from 33 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 15L across 33 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Telstar heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 9W 3D 4L from 16 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 3W 6D 7L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Telstar in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 19W 5D 9L in their last 33 games (1.88 PPG), while Telstar have gone 7W 11D 15L in their last 33 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Telstar away?
Excelsior's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.88 PPG; Telstar away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Telstar in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Excelsior won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Excelsior 2-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Telstar?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 50%, Telstar 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Excelsior and 62% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Excelsior's games and 62% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Excelsior's matches and 62% of Telstar's.
Do Excelsior and Telstar tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Telstar in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Telstar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Excelsior 1-4 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.28 xG and Telstar 1.04 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Telstar outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.42 / defence 0.95 against Telstar attack 0.77 / defence 1.30, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 65% | Draw 19% | Telstar 16%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.