Excelsior 3-2 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as Excelsior welcome Telstar to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Excelsior — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 5W 1D 4L at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Telstar's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Excelsior have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Excelsior, 1 for Telstar and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with Telstar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Telstar in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 69% and Telstar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 81% | Telstar 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.60 xG and Telstar 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.041 / defence 1.047 | Telstar attack 1.140 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.300. Data: 4 Excelsior games / 43 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 36% | Draw 29% | Telstar 34%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Telstar 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 50% | Telstar 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 36% | Draw 29% | Telstar 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Excelsior 1.60 / Telstar 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.041 / def 1.047 | Telstar attack 1.140 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Telstar xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Telstar kick off?
Excelsior vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Telstar?
Excelsior 3 - 2 Telstar.
Where is Excelsior vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Telstar part of?
Excelsior vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 36% chance of winning, Telstar a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Excelsior and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Telstar?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Telstar in?
Excelsior (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Telstar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.04) and Telstar's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.39
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.15
1.55
Telstar xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.55 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior's recent record stands at 11W 12D 19L from 42 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 21L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.07 PPG, Telstar on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 7W 7D 6L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 4W 3D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.33 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Telstar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Telstar in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Telstar have gone 12W 9D 21L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Telstar away?
Excelsior's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.40 PPG; Telstar away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Excelsior won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Excelsior 2-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Telstar?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 65%, Telstar 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Excelsior and 50% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Excelsior's games and 50% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Excelsior's matches and 50% of Telstar's.
Do Excelsior and Telstar tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Telstar in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out Telstar 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Telstar 3-2 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.60 xG and Telstar 1.55 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Telstar attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 4/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 36% | Draw 29% | Telstar 34%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 81%, Telstar 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.07 PPG, Telstar 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.