Excelsior 2-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
MVV make the trip to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to face Excelsior in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 4W 2D 2L this season (8 games, 1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 3W 0D 5L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Excelsior. A 1.10 PPG lead over MVV (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 61% versus MVV 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 72% | MVV 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.33 xG and MVV 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.332 / defence 1.281 | MVV attack 0.661 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Excelsior games / 18 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 60% | Draw 19% | MVV 21%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | MVV 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 62% | MVV 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 60% | Draw 19% | MVV 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Excelsior 2.33 / MVV 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.332 / def 1.281 | MVV attack 0.661 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.31
MVV xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs MVV kick off?
Excelsior vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs MVV?
Excelsior 2 - 1 MVV.
Where is Excelsior vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs MVV part of?
Excelsior vs MVV is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 60% chance of winning, MVV a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Excelsior and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and MVV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and MVV in?
Excelsior (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 1.33x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.66x) against Excelsior's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
60%
1.66
19%
5.18
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.64
1.31
MVV xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
10%
10.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
2%
49.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.31 for MVV, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Excelsior have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 12W 2D 4L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 7W 2D 9L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against MVV.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
On the road, MVV have gone 3W 0D 5L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.17 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and MVV in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 12W 2D 4L in their last 18 games (2.11 PPG), while MVV have gone 7W 2D 9L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or MVV away?
Excelsior's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.75 PPG; MVV away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Excelsior or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, MVV in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Excelsior have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
0
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and MVV?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, MVV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when MVV 1-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and MVV?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 62%, MVV 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Excelsior and 50% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 38%; MVV in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Excelsior's recent matches and 25% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Excelsior's matches and 50% of MVV's.
Do Excelsior and MVV tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, MVV in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out MVV 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat MVV 2-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.33 xG and MVV 1.31 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.33 / defence 1.28 against MVV attack 0.66 / defence 1.46, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 60% | Draw 19% | MVV 21%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 72%, MVV 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
MVV's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.