Emmen 2-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Telstar travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 March 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Emmen have won 0, Telstar 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Telstar in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 42% versus Telstar 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 42% | Telstar 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.97 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.209 / defence 0.856 | Telstar attack 0.748 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.435. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Emmen games / 31 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 61% | Draw 22% | Telstar 16%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Telstar 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Telstar 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Mar 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 61% | Draw 22% | Telstar 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Emmen 1.97 / Telstar 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.209 / def 0.856 | Telstar attack 0.748 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Emmen (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Telstar xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Telstar kick off?
Emmen vs Telstar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 27 March 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Telstar?
Emmen 2 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Emmen vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Telstar part of?
Emmen vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 61% chance of winning, Telstar a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Emmen and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Telstar?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Emmen and Telstar in?
Emmen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Telstar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.21x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.51
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.88
0.92
Telstar xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
2%
43.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Emmen and 0.92 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Emmen have picked up 2.16 PPG on a 21W 4D 6L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 7W 11D 13L from 31 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 2.20 PPG from 15 outings (11W 0D 4L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 3W 6D 6L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.13 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 61%.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Telstar in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 21W 4D 6L in their last 31 games (2.16 PPG), while Telstar have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Telstar away?
Emmen's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.20 PPG; Telstar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Emmen or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Telstar in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2025, when Telstar won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Emmen
1
Draws
2
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 3, Telstar have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Telstar 3-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Telstar?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 40%, Telstar 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Emmen) and 60% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Telstar in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Emmen's recent matches and 60% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Emmen's recent games and 60% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Telstar tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Telstar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Telstar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Telstar 2-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.97 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against Telstar attack 0.75 / defence 1.29, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 61% | Draw 22% | Telstar 16%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 42%, Telstar 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.