Emmen vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host FC OSS at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 5W 2D 3L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Emmen 1.70 PPG, FC OSS 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Emmen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for FC OSS, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with FC OSS winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 60% and FC OSS 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 64% | FC OSS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.72 xG and FC OSS 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.032 / defence 0.779 | FC OSS attack 0.687 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Emmen's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Emmen games / 42 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 57% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 20%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 57% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Emmen 1.72 / FC OSS 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.032 / def 0.779 | FC OSS attack 0.687 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Emmen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC OSS xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC OSS kick off?
Emmen vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
Where is Emmen vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC OSS part of?
Emmen vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 57% chance of winning, FC OSS a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Emmen and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
Record (8 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 2W.
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.03) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.22
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.63
0.91
FC OSS xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
4%
28.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Emmen and 0.91 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 15W 9D 18L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS's form line: 12W 11D 19L from 42 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.29 PPG, FC OSS on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 5W 8D 8L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.36 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC OSS away?
Emmen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.67 PPG; FC OSS away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when FC OSS 4-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC OSS?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 62%, FC OSS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Emmen) and 38% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Emmen's games and 57% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Emmen's recent games and 38% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC OSS tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.