Dordrecht 2-5 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Roda at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 1W 3D 4L at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 71% and Roda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 76% | Roda 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.05 xG and Roda 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.798 / defence 1.444 | Roda attack 0.927 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.487. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Dordrecht games / 17 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 19% | Draw 21% | Roda 59%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Roda 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Roda (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Roda 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 19% | Draw 21% | Roda 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Dordrecht 1.05 / Roda 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.798 / def 1.444 | Roda attack 0.927 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Roda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Roda xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Roda kick off?
Dordrecht vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Dordrecht 2 - 5 Roda.
Where is Dordrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Roda part of?
Dordrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 19% chance of winning, Roda a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dordrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.80) and Roda's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
19%
5.16
21%
4.68
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.04
1.99
Roda xG
5.16
19%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
3%
37.75
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.99 for Roda, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.59 PPG on a 2W 4D 11L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 6W 6D 5L from 17 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.71 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Roda in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 11L in their last 17 games (0.59 PPG), while Roda have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.75 PPG; Roda away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Roda in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
0
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Roda have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dordrecht 0-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 50%, Roda 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Dordrecht and 75% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dordrecht's games and 62% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dordrecht's matches and 75% of Roda's.
Do Dordrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Roda in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Dordrecht 2-5 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.05 xG and Roda 1.99 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda outscored their 1.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.80 / defence 1.44 against Roda attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 19% | Draw 21% | Roda 59%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 76%, Roda 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.