Dordrecht 2-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 46%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dordrecht vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Excelsior travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Excelsior are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for Excelsior and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Excelsior trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 64% and Excelsior 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 54% | Excelsior 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.69 xG and Excelsior 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.045 / defence 0.808 | Excelsior attack 1.142 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.344. Data: 44 Dordrecht games / 6 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 46% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 26%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Excelsior 3.85. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 40% | Excelsior 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 46% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Dordrecht 1.69 / Excelsior 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.045 / def 0.808 | Excelsior attack 1.142 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Excelsior xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Excelsior kick off?
Dordrecht vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Dordrecht 2 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Dordrecht vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Excelsior part of?
Dordrecht vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 46% chance of winning, Excelsior a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dordrecht and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Excelsior?
Record (2 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Excelsior in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Excelsior (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.04) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.55
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.94
1.24
Excelsior xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
5%
20.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.24 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 20W 17D 7L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior's form line: 13W 12D 19L from 44 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (12W 7D 2L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 3W 5D 13L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.86 scored and 2.02 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Excelsior in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 20W 17D 7L in their last 44 games (1.75 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Excelsior away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.05 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Excelsior in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dordrecht's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 0, Excelsior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Excelsior 1-0 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, Excelsior 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Dordrecht and 90% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Dordrecht's games and 71% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Dordrecht's matches and 90% of Excelsior's.
Do Dordrecht and Excelsior tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Excelsior share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and Excelsior finished level at 2-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.69 xG and Excelsior 1.24 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.04 / defence 0.81 against Excelsior attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 46% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 26%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 54%, Excelsior 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.