Den Bosch 0-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 2 April 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Willem II (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Den Bosch 1W, Willem II 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 52% versus Willem II 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 66% | Willem II 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.64 xG and Willem II 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.048 / defence 1.095 | Willem II attack 1.134 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.329. Data: 68 Den Bosch games / 30 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 38% | Draw 23% | Willem II 39%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 38% | Draw 23% | Willem II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Den Bosch 1.64 / Willem II 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.048 / def 1.095 | Willem II attack 1.134 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Willem II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Willem II xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Willem II kick off?
Den Bosch vs Willem II kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Den Bosch 0 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Den Bosch vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Willem II part of?
Den Bosch vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 38% chance of winning, Willem II a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Den Bosch and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Den Bosch and Willem II in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.05x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.13x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
38%
2.62
23%
4.33
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.29
1.65
Willem II xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.65 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 8D 35L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (23W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.30 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 16W 3D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.94 points per game from 32 outings (7W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.30 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Willem II in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 21W 8D 35L in their last 64 games (1.11 PPG), while Willem II have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Willem II away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.59 PPG; Willem II away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-4 on 15 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, Willem II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Den Bosch and 62% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 31% of games; Willem II in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 59% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Den Bosch's matches and 62% of Willem II's.
Do Den Bosch and Willem II tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Willem II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Den Bosch 0-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.64 xG and Willem II 1.65 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Willem II attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 38% | Draw 23% | Willem II 39%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 66%, Willem II 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.11 PPG, Willem II 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.