Den Bosch 0-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Den Bosch face Jong AZ.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Den Bosch stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Den Bosch at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong AZ — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 0.90 PPG, Jong AZ 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Den Bosch's games and 80% of Jong AZ's (from Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for Jong AZ and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Dec 2023, ended Den Bosch 0–0 Jong AZ — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jong AZ trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 52% versus Jong AZ 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 65% | Jong AZ 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.38 xG and Jong AZ 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.725 / defence 1.142 | Jong AZ attack 0.977 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 63 games and Jong AZ's last 63.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 37%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.90 | Draw 3.57 | Jong AZ 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 60% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Den Bosch 1.38 / Jong AZ 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.725 / def 1.142 | Jong AZ attack 0.977 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Jong AZ xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Den Bosch 0 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 34% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Den Bosch vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.72) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 63 games and Jong AZ's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.57
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.83
1.45
Jong AZ xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.45 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 14W 12D 37L from 63 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 24L across 63 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 10W 7D 14L from their last 31 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 9W 5D 17L across their last 31 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.56 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 60%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
Den Bosch (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 12D 37L in their last 63 games (0.86 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 25W 14D 24L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong AZ away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.19 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won Den Bosch 6-0 Jong AZ.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
5
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Jong AZ 0-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 61%, Jong AZ 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Den Bosch and 68% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 29% of games; Jong AZ in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Den Bosch's games and 64% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Den Bosch's matches and 68% of Jong AZ's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 81% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Den Bosch's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 26, as Den Bosch and Jong AZ drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.38 xG and Jong AZ 1.45 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.72 / defence 1.14 against Jong AZ attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 34% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 37%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 65%, Jong AZ 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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