Den Bosch 1-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Den Bosch face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and FC OSS meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Den Bosch at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Den Bosch, 3 for FC OSS and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2024, ended Den Bosch 0–1 FC OSS — a FC OSS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 49% versus FC OSS 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 58% | FC OSS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.58 xG and FC OSS 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.022 / defence 1.136 | FC OSS attack 0.623 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.342. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.623 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 59 games and FC OSS's last 60.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 22%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 4.59. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 60% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Den Bosch 1.58 / FC OSS 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.022 / def 1.136 | FC OSS attack 0.623 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC OSS xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs FC OSS kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 January 2025 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Den Bosch 1 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC OSS part of?
Den Bosch vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 51% chance of winning, FC OSS a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Den Bosch and FC OSS will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Den Bosch vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.62x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 59 games and FC OSS's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.70
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.53
0.95
FC OSS xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
5%
22.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Den Bosch and 0.95 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 17W 15D 27L from 59 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 32L across 59 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.00 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 6W 10D 12L from their last 28 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 3W 7D 18L across their last 28 away games, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC OSS's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.83 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
Den Bosch (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Den Bosch vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 16W 11D 32L in their last 59 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC OSS away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.00 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Den Bosch and FC OSS, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won Den Bosch 4-1 FC OSS on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 6, FC OSS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Den Bosch 2-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 64%, FC OSS 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Den Bosch) and 46% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 32% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Den Bosch and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 46% of FC OSS's.
Do Den Bosch and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 57% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out FC OSS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat FC OSS 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.58 xG and FC OSS 0.95 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against FC OSS attack 0.62 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 51% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 22%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.12 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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