De Graafschap 3-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Vitesse travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.40 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Vitesse trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 66% and Vitesse 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 71% | Vitesse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.81 xG and Vitesse 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.317 / defence 1.110 | Vitesse attack 0.962 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.440. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 De Graafschap games / 7 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 31%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Vitesse 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG De Graafschap 1.81 / Vitesse 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.317 / def 1.110 | Vitesse attack 0.962 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Vitesse xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Vitesse kick off?
De Graafschap vs Vitesse kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
De Graafschap 3 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is De Graafschap vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Vitesse part of?
De Graafschap vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 42% chance of winning, Vitesse a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both De Graafschap and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Vitesse in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.32x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.78
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.34
1.54
Vitesse xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.54 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 8D 14L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 0.83 PPG from 41 outings (8W 10D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
De Graafschap's home form reads 12W 3D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (6W 1D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.00 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Vitesse in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 8W 10D 23L in their last 41 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Vitesse away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.95 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Vitesse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Vitesse won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
0
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Vitesse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 65%, Vitesse 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for De Graafschap and 65% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of De Graafschap's games and 45% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of De Graafschap's matches and 65% of Vitesse's.
Do De Graafschap and Vitesse tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Vitesse 3-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.81 xG and Vitesse 1.54 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.32 / defence 1.11 against Vitesse attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 31%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 71%, Vitesse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.