De Graafschap 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
NAC Breda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for De Graafschap, 1.40 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with NAC Breda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 56% and NAC Breda 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 62% | NAC Breda 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.931 / defence 0.765 | NAC Breda attack 1.207 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.285. NAC Breda have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. De Graafschap's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 De Graafschap games / 50 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | NAC Breda 3.70. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG De Graafschap 1.59 / NAC Breda 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.931 / def 0.765 | NAC Breda attack 1.207 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.19
NAC Breda xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kick off?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 November 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
De Graafschap 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda part of?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both De Graafschap and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.93x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.21x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.59
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.78
1.19
NAC Breda xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.19 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 9D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.48 PPG from 50 outings (22W 8D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.48 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 13W 4D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.36 points per game from 25 outings (10W 4D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.72 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 76%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 9D 20L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 22W 8D 20L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or NAC Breda away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.72 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 44%, NAC Breda 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for De Graafschap and 76% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 8% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of De Graafschap's games and 76% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of De Graafschap's matches and 76% of NAC Breda's.
Do De Graafschap and NAC Breda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.19 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.93 / defence 0.77 against NAC Breda attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 62%, NAC Breda 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.44 PPG, NAC Breda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.