De Graafschap 4-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face Jong PSV U21.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. De Graafschap's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Jong PSV U21's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 54% and Jong PSV U21 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 59% | Jong PSV U21 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.903 / defence 0.839 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.977 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.399. Data: 59 De Graafschap games / 59 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Jong PSV U21 3.85. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG De Graafschap 1.57 / Jong PSV U21 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.903 / def 0.839 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.977 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Jong PSV U21 xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 January 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap 4 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 46% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
Record (5 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.98x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.60
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.72
1.15
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.15 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 26W 10D 23L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 17W 14D 28L from 59 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.10 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 7W 7D 14L from 28 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.49 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 26W 10D 23L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 14D 28L in their last 59 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.68 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
De Graafschap have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 8, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 46%, Jong PSV U21 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (De Graafschap) and 64% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of De Graafschap's games and 64% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of De Graafschap's matches and 64% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 4-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.15 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 46% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 59%, Jong PSV U21 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.49 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.