Cambuur 2-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host NAC Breda at Cambuur Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 October 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cambuur Stadion, Cambuur have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cambuur are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 44% versus NAC Breda 72%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 67% | NAC Breda 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.128 / defence 1.254 | NAC Breda attack 1.103 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.356. Data: 9 Cambuur games / 47 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 40% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 38%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Oct 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 40% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Cambuur 1.93 / NAC Breda 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.128 / def 1.254 | NAC Breda attack 1.103 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.88
NAC Breda xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs NAC Breda kick off?
Cambuur vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 15 October 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs NAC Breda?
Cambuur 2 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is Cambuur vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs NAC Breda part of?
Cambuur vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 40% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Cambuur and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and NAC Breda in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
40%
2.49
22%
4.63
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.80
1.88
NAC Breda xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
15%
6.52
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.88 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.74 PPG on a 9W 5D 29L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 19W 5D 19L from 43 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.86 PPG from 22 outings (6W 1D 15L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 9W 3D 10L from 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.70 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 72%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 9W 5D 29L in their last 43 games (0.74 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 19W 5D 19L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.86 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cambuur
0
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and NAC Breda?
From 2 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, NAC Breda have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2024, when NAC Breda 1-2 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 36%, NAC Breda 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Cambuur and 77% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cambuur's recent matches and 73% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Cambuur's matches and 77% of NAC Breda's.
Do Cambuur and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Cambuur 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Cambuur 2-3 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.88 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 1.25 against NAC Breda attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 40% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 38%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 67%, NAC Breda 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.74. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.