Cambuur 5-2 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuur Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Cambuur, 1.60 for MVV — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, MVV in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cambuur, 0 for MVV and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 56% and MVV 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 70% | MVV 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.54 xG and MVV 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.041 / defence 1.210 | MVV attack 0.965 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.403. Data: 20 Cambuur games / 58 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 35% | Draw 26% | MVV 39%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | MVV 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on MVV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | MVV 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 35% | Draw 26% | MVV 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Cambuur 1.54 / MVV 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.041 / def 1.210 | MVV attack 0.965 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: MVV (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.64
MVV xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs MVV kick off?
Cambuur vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 January 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs MVV?
Cambuur 5 - 2 MVV.
Where is Cambuur vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs MVV part of?
Cambuur vs MVV is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 35% chance of winning, MVV a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Cambuur and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and MVV?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | MVV 0W.
What form are Cambuur and MVV in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. MVV (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.04) and MVV's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.96x) against Cambuur's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
35%
2.86
26%
3.86
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.18
1.64
MVV xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.64 for MVV, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 14W 8D 32L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 23W 8D 23L from 54 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, MVV are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.89 PPG from 27 outings (7W 3D 17L).
On the road, MVV have gone 9W 3D 15L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.57 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 67%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and MVV in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 14W 8D 32L in their last 54 games (0.93 PPG), while MVV have gone 23W 8D 23L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or MVV away?
MVV's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.89 PPG; MVV away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 4-0 on 19 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Cambuur
1
Draws
0
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and MVV?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 5, MVV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Cambuur 4-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and MVV?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 48%, MVV 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Cambuur and 67% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Cambuur's games and 67% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Cambuur's matches and 67% of MVV's.
Do Cambuur and MVV tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, MVV in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 5-2 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat MVV 5-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.54 xG and MVV 1.64 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.04 / defence 1.21 against MVV attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 35% | Draw 26% | MVV 39%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 70%, MVV 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Cambuur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.