Almere City FC 1-3 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host VVV Venlo at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
VVV Venlo away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 2.00 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, VVV Venlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour VVV Venlo, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Almere City FC.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with VVV Venlo winning.
It is worth noting that VVV Venlo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus VVV Venlo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 60% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.37 xG and VVV Venlo 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.915 / defence 0.946 | VVV Venlo attack 1.159 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.799 / away 1.281. Data: 65 Almere City FC games / 66 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 36% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 38%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | VVV Venlo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 80% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 36% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Almere City FC 1.37 / VVV Venlo 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.915 / def 0.946 | VVV Venlo attack 1.159 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.799 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
VVV Venlo xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Almere City FC 1 - 3 VVV Venlo.
Where is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo part of?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 36% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Almere City FC and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
36%
2.74
25%
3.94
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.41
VVV Venlo xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.41 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 26W 12D 27L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo's form line: 28W 11D 26L from 65 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.38 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.34 PPG from 32 outings (12W 7D 13L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 16W 3D 13L from 32 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.42 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 26W 12D 27L in their last 65 games (1.38 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 28W 11D 26L in their last 65 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or VVV Venlo away?
VVV Venlo's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.34 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, VVV Venlo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Almere City FC and 62% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 53% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Almere City FC and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Almere City FC 1-3 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.37 xG and VVV Venlo 1.41 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against VVV Venlo attack 1.16 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 36% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 38%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 60%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.38 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.