Almere City FC vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Roda travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 2.10 PPG, Roda 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Almere City FC, 3 for Roda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 63% and Roda 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 72% | Roda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.11 xG and Roda 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.868 / defence 0.635 | Roda attack 0.691 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. Roda's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.635 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Almere City FC games / 49 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 47% | Draw 32% | Roda 21%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Roda 4.76. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Roda's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 40% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 47% | Draw 32% | Roda 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG Almere City FC 1.11 / Roda 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.868 / def 0.635 | Roda attack 0.691 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Roda xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Roda kick off?
Almere City FC vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Roda part of?
Almere City FC vs Roda is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 47% chance of winning, Roda a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Almere City FC and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 3W | Draws 0 | Roda 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
47%
2.14
32%
3.12
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
1.75
0.64
Roda xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Almere City FC and 0.64 for Roda, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 51 games, going 27W 6D 18L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.49 PPG from 51 outings (19W 19D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.71 PPG, Roda on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 16W 3D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.68 points per game from 25 outings (11W 9D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.43 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Roda in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 27W 6D 18L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while Roda have gone 19W 19D 13L in their last 51 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Roda away?
Almere City FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 2.04 PPG; Roda away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Roda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, Roda have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Almere City FC 1-2 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, Roda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Almere City FC and 56% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Almere City FC's games and 64% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Almere City FC's matches and 56% of Roda's.
Do Almere City FC and Roda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Roda in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.