Almere City FC 1-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Jong Utrecht travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 August 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.00 PPG (Almere City FC) versus 0.00 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 0.96 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.212. Data: 1 Almere City FC games / 1 Jong Utrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 27% | Draw 34% | Jong Utrecht 38%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Jong Utrecht 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 27% | Draw 34% | Jong Utrecht 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Almere City FC 0.96 / Jong Utrecht 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Jong Utrecht xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 27% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.98) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.91
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.15
1.19
Jong Utrecht xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.19 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 0.00 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almere City FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Almere City FC
1
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 2-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 0% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Almere City FC's recent games and 0% of Jong Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.96 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.19 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 27% | Draw 34% | Jong Utrecht 38%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 100%, Jong Utrecht 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.00 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.