Almere City FC 0-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host Jong AZ at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 1.80 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 1 for Jong AZ and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 60% versus Jong AZ 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 68% | Jong AZ 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.43 xG and Jong AZ 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.898 / defence 1.041 | Jong AZ attack 0.734 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.452. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Almere City FC games / 37 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 44% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 29%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Jong AZ 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 20% | Jong AZ 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 44% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Almere City FC 1.43 / Jong AZ 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.898 / def 1.041 | Jong AZ attack 0.734 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Jong AZ xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong AZ kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Almere City FC 0 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 44% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong AZ in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.79
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.11
Jong AZ xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.11 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 8D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.05 PPG from 37 outings (11W 6D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.11 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 5W 4D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.97 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 11W 6D 20L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Jong AZ away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.06 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Jong AZ won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
0
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Jong AZ have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Jong AZ 3-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 44%, Jong AZ 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Almere City FC) and 50% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Jong AZ in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 44% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Almere City FC's matches and 50% of Jong AZ's.
Do Almere City FC and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Almere City FC 0-3 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.43 xG and Jong AZ 1.11 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Jong AZ attack 0.73 / defence 1.26, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 44% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 29%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 68%, Jong AZ 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.11 PPG, Jong AZ 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.