Almere City FC 3-0 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 33 as Almere City FC welcome Excelsior to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Yanmar Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Excelsior's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Almere City FC) versus 1.90 (Excelsior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 0 for Excelsior and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Excelsior trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 59% versus Excelsior 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 66% | Excelsior 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.25 xG and Excelsior 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.838 / defence 1.086 | Excelsior attack 1.093 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.435. Data: 32 Almere City FC games / 32 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 28% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 48%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Excelsior 2.08. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 20% | Excelsior 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 28% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Almere City FC 1.25 / Excelsior 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.838 / def 1.086 | Excelsior attack 1.093 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Excelsior xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Excelsior kick off?
Almere City FC vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Almere City FC 3 - 0 Excelsior.
Where is Almere City FC vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Excelsior part of?
Almere City FC vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 28% chance of winning, Excelsior a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Almere City FC and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Excelsior in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.84x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
28%
3.62
25%
4.03
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.70
Excelsior xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
5%
19.91
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.70 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 9W 8D 15L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 8L across 32 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 4W 4D 8L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 10W 2D 4L across 16 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.28 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 19W 5D 8L in their last 32 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Excelsior in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Excelsior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2022, when Almere City FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
2
Draws
0
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Excelsior have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Almere City FC 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Excelsior?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 44%, Excelsior 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Almere City FC) and 62% (Excelsior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Excelsior in 31%; Almere City FC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 62% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of Excelsior's.
Do Almere City FC and Excelsior tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Excelsior 3-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.25 xG and Excelsior 1.70 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Excelsior attack 1.09 / defence 1.18, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 28% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 48%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 66%, Excelsior 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Excelsior's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.