Almere City FC 4-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Almere City FC at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Almere City FC welcome Emmen to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.90 PPG, Emmen 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 1 for Emmen and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 46% versus Emmen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 57% | Emmen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.13 xG and Emmen 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.208 / defence 0.969 | Emmen attack 0.851 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.743 / away 1.514. Data: 20 Almere City FC games / 58 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 58% | Draw 21% | Emmen 22%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Emmen 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 58% | Draw 21% | Emmen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Almere City FC 2.13 / Emmen 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.208 / def 0.969 | Emmen attack 0.851 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.743 / away 1.514 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Emmen xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Emmen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Almere City FC 4 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Almere City FC vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Emmen part of?
Almere City FC vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 58% chance of winning, Emmen a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Almere City FC and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 3W | Draws 1 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.21) and Emmen's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
58%
1.74
21%
4.84
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.38
1.25
Emmen xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
12%
8.45
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
3%
38.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.25 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 13W 12D 29L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 23W 8D 23L from 54 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almere City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 11W 2D 14L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.65 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 13W 12D 29L in their last 54 games (0.94 PPG), while Emmen have gone 23W 8D 23L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.04 PPG; Emmen away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Emmen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
1
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Emmen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Almere City FC 4-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, Emmen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Almere City FC) and 59% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Emmen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 44% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Almere City FC's matches and 59% of Emmen's.
Do Almere City FC and Emmen tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Emmen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Emmen 4-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.13 xG and Emmen 1.25 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Emmen attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 58% | Draw 21% | Emmen 22%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 57%, Emmen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.