Almere City FC 2-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Den Bosch are 0.50 PPG clear of Almere City FC in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Almere City FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 56% versus Den Bosch 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 71% | Den Bosch 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.45 xG and Den Bosch 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.091 / defence 0.882 | Den Bosch attack 0.967 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.434. Data: 41 Almere City FC games / 41 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 42% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 32%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Den Bosch (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 10% | Den Bosch 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 42% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Almere City FC 1.45 / Den Bosch 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.091 / def 0.882 | Den Bosch attack 0.967 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Den Bosch xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kick off?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Almere City FC 2 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch part of?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 42% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Almere City FC and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.09) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.97x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.88
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.22
Den Bosch xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.22 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 8D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.22 PPG from 41 outings (15W 5D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.22 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.10 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 5D 21L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Den Bosch away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.10 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
From 9 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 40%, Den Bosch 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Almere City FC) and 50% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Den Bosch in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 45% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Almere City FC's matches and 50% of Den Bosch's.
Do Almere City FC and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Den Bosch 2-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.45 xG and Den Bosch 1.22 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 42% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 32%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 71%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.07 PPG, Den Bosch 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.