Almere City FC 1-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Almere City FC are significantly better at Yanmar Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.40 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 2–5 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus Den Bosch 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 59% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.26 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.975 | Den Bosch attack 1.019 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.525. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Almere City FC games / 71 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 54% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 25%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.85 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 4.00. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Den Bosch 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 54% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Almere City FC 2.26 / Den Bosch 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.155 / def 0.975 | Den Bosch attack 1.019 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Den Bosch xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kick off?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Almere City FC 1 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch part of?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 54% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Almere City FC and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.16) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.02x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 34/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
54%
1.84
20%
4.99
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.78
1.51
Den Bosch xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
10%
9.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
3%
37.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.51 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 14D 33L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.32 PPG from 68 outings (24W 18D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.32 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 11W 8D 15L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.00 points per game from 34 outings (9W 7D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.46 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 21W 14D 33L in their last 68 games (1.13 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 24W 18D 26L in their last 68 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Den Bosch away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
From 9 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, Den Bosch 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Almere City FC and 71% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Den Bosch in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 65% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Almere City FC's matches and 71% of Den Bosch's.
Do Almere City FC and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Almere City FC 1-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.26 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Den Bosch attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 54% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 59%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.13 PPG, Den Bosch 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.