Almere City FC 3-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Almere City FC, 1.50 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 54% versus De Graafschap 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 62% | De Graafschap 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.88 xG and De Graafschap 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.153 / defence 1.033 | De Graafschap attack 1.148 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Data: 38 Almere City FC games / 76 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 43% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 35%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 43% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Almere City FC 1.88 / De Graafschap 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.153 / def 1.033 | De Graafschap attack 1.148 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
De Graafschap xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kick off?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Almere City FC 3 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap part of?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is a Quarter-finals fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 43% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Almere City FC and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.15x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
43%
2.33
22%
4.56
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.57
1.69
De Graafschap xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
5%
18.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.69 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 24W 14D 36L from 74 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 35W 17D 22L across 74 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 13W 8D 16L from 37 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 12W 12D 13L across 37 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.84 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 24W 14D 36L in their last 74 games (1.16 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 35W 17D 22L in their last 74 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.27 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 1-4 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
From 9 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 51%, De Graafschap 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Almere City FC and 60% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Almere City FC's games and 65% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Almere City FC's matches and 60% of De Graafschap's.
Do Almere City FC and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat De Graafschap 3-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Quarter-finals, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.88 xG and De Graafschap 1.69 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against De Graafschap attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 43% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 35%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 62%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.