Almere City FC 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 18 January 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Yanmar Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Almere City FC, 2.40 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 47% versus De Graafschap 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 58% | De Graafschap 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.16 xG and De Graafschap 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.273 / defence 1.026 | De Graafschap attack 1.251 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.544. Almere City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Almere City FC games / 59 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 43% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 36%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.33 | Draw 5.00 | De Graafschap 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | De Graafschap 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 43% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG Almere City FC 2.16 / De Graafschap 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.273 / def 1.026 | De Graafschap attack 1.251 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.544 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.98
De Graafschap xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kick off?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Almere City FC 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap part of?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 43% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 36% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Almere City FC and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 1.27x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.25x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
43%
2.31
20%
4.91
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
4.14
1.98
De Graafschap xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.23
Clean Sheet
14%
7.26
12%
8.69
Win to Nil
6%
16.78
4%
23.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.98 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 14W 12D 29L from 55 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 16L across 55 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 8W 7D 13L from 28 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 10W 7D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.82 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 14W 12D 29L in their last 55 games (0.98 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 27W 12D 16L in their last 55 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.11 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 1-4 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
From 9 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, De Graafschap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Almere City FC and 61% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 29% of games; De Graafschap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Almere City FC's matches and 61% of De Graafschap's.
Do Almere City FC and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.16 xG and De Graafschap 1.98 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.03 against De Graafschap attack 1.25 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 43% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 36%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.