ADO Den Haag 0-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as ADO Den Haag welcome De Graafschap to Cars Jeans Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 January 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cars Jeans Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
ADO Den Haag trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
De Graafschap trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 52% versus De Graafschap 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 61% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.53 xG and De Graafschap 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.464 / defence 0.984 | De Graafschap attack 0.993 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.418. ADO Den Haag carry an above-average attack strength of 1.464 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 ADO Den Haag games / 23 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 60% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.53 / De Graafschap 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.464 / def 0.984 | De Graafschap attack 0.993 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.38
De Graafschap xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap part of?
ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 41% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.46) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.06
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.91
1.38
De Graafschap xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.38 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 16W 2D 5L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 12W 4D 7L from 23 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against De Graafschap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.45 PPG from 11 outings (9W 0D 2L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 1D 2L from 11 away games — 2.27 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.74 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.52 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 16W 2D 5L in their last 23 games (2.17 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 12W 4D 7L in their last 23 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or De Graafschap away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.45 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.27 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, De Graafschap have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 54%, De Graafschap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for ADO Den Haag and 73% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; De Graafschap in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 54% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 73% of De Graafschap's.
Do ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ADO Den Haag's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap finished level at 0-0 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.53 xG and De Graafschap 1.38 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.5 short of their projected output. De Graafschap landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.46 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 61%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
De Graafschap's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.