ADO Den Haag 1-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 37 as ADO Den Haag welcome Almere City FC to Cars Jeans Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Cars Jeans Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Almere City FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Almere City FC's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of ADO Den Haag's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for ADO Den Haag, 0 for Almere City FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 58% versus Almere City FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 58% | Almere City FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.79 xG and Almere City FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.056 / defence 1.038 | Almere City FC attack 1.025 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.492. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 ADO Den Haag games / 36 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 43% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 80% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 43% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.79 / Almere City FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.056 / def 1.038 | Almere City FC attack 1.025 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Almere City FC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 43% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.06) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
43%
2.34
23%
4.37
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.38
1.59
Almere City FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.43
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.59 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 21W 7D 8L from 36 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 17L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 11W 4D 3L from 18 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 21W 7D 8L in their last 36 games (1.94 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Almere City FC away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.06 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Almere City FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
ADO Den Haag
0
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 3, Almere City FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Almere City FC 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 67%, Almere City FC at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for ADO Den Haag and 78% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ADO Den Haag's games and 78% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 78% of Almere City FC's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Almere City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Almere City FC 1-0 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.79 xG and Almere City FC 1.59 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Almere City FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.34, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 43% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 34%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 58%, Almere City FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Almere City FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.