ADO Den Haag 2-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as ADO Den Haag welcome Almere City FC to WerkTalent Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at WerkTalent Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for ADO Den Haag, 2 for Almere City FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 2–3 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 62% versus Almere City FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 56% | Almere City FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.46 xG and Almere City FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.294 / defence 0.919 | Almere City FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.279. ADO Den Haag carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 ADO Den Haag games / 5 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 65% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 17%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Almere City FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 60% | Almere City FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: WerkTalent Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 65% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 64% | xG ADO Den Haag 2.46 / Almere City FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.294 / def 0.919 | Almere City FC attack 1.008 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Almere City FC xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at WerkTalent Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at WerkTalent Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 65% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): ADO Den Haag 2W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.29) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.59
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.65
1.19
Almere City FC xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
9%
11.76
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
1%
70.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.19 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 23W 8D 8L from 39 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 23L across 39 games — 0.72 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 13W 2D 4L from 19 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 3W 5D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.87 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 23W 8D 8L in their last 39 games (1.97 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 6W 10D 23L in their last 39 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Almere City FC away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.16 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Almere City FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
ADO Den Haag
0
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 3, Almere City FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Almere City FC 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 58%, Almere City FC 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (ADO Den Haag) and 47% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Almere City FC in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 32% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of ADO Den Haag's recent games and 47% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ADO Den Haag and Almere City FC tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Almere City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Almere City FC 2-1 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.46 xG and Almere City FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.29 / defence 0.92 against Almere City FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 65% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 17%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 56%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.