Virtus Entella 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Virtus Entella vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Virtus Entella welcome Frosinone to Stadio Comunale. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella at Stadio Comunale this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Frosinone — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Virtus Entella register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Frosinone in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Virtus Entella have won 0, Frosinone 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Virtus Entella in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 52% versus Frosinone 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 29% | Frosinone 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 0.99 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.842 / defence 0.974 | Frosinone attack 1.252 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.036. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Virtus Entella games / 59 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 29% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 42%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Virtus Entella 60% | Frosinone 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 29% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Virtus Entella 0.99 / Frosinone 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.842 / def 0.974 | Frosinone attack 1.252 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Frosinone xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Frosinone kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Frosinone?
Virtus Entella 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Frosinone part of?
Virtus Entella vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 29% chance of winning, Frosinone a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Virtus Entella and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Virtus Entella 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Frosinone in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Virtus Entella's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
29%
3.47
29%
3.46
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.25
1.26
Frosinone xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.26 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Virtus Entella have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 8D 9L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 13W 6D 2L from 21 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Virtus Entella.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Virtus Entella have posted 1.70 PPG from 10 outings (4W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Frosinone have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.86 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 13W 6D 2L in their last 21 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.70 PPG; Frosinone away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Virtus Entella or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Virtus Entella have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Frosinone in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Virtus Entella and Frosinone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Frosinone?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 0, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Virtus Entella 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Virtus Entella and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 60%, Frosinone 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Virtus Entella and 50% for Frosinone.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Virtus Entella's games and 60% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 50% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Frosinone tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Virtus Entella and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 22, as Virtus Entella and Frosinone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 0.99 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Frosinone attack 1.25 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 29% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 42%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 29%, Frosinone 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.