Vicenza Virtus 2-3 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 0W 1D 5L from 6 home games — 0.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.17 lags behind their overall 0.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Romeo Menti this season.
Benevento have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento away from home this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Benevento are 0.80 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus in recent Serie B fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Benevento — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 50% versus Benevento 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 50% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.79 xG and Benevento 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.817 / defence 1.441 | Benevento attack 0.815 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.155. Data: 14 Vicenza Virtus games / 14 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 21% | Draw 30% | Benevento 49%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 2.04. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 50% | Benevento 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 21% | Draw 30% | Benevento 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.79 / Benevento 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.817 / def 1.441 | Benevento attack 0.815 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Benevento (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Benevento xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Vicenza Virtus 2 - 3 Benevento.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 21% chance of winning, Benevento a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Benevento in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.82) and Benevento's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.81x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
21%
4.80
30%
3.33
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.15
1.36
Benevento xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
5%
18.67
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.8 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.36 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 2W 1D 11L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 6W 4D 4L from 14 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.57 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Benevento in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 1D 11L in their last 14 games (0.50 PPG), while Benevento have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.17 PPG; Benevento away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Benevento in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Benevento have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Benevento 1-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 50%, Benevento 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Vicenza Virtus and 0% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 33%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 50% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 33% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 0% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Benevento tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Benevento in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benevento edge out Vicenza Virtus 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Vicenza Virtus 2-3 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.79 xG and Benevento 1.36 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.82 / defence 1.44 against Benevento attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 21% | Draw 30% | Benevento 49%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 50%, Benevento 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Benevento's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.