Venezia 3-2 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Pescara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pescara make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 9W 0D 1L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pescara's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in Venezia's favour (2.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Pescara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 56% and Pescara 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 64% | Pescara 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.18 xG and Pescara 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.214 / defence 0.971 | Pescara attack 0.810 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.070. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Venezia games / 25 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 68% | Draw 19% | Pescara 13%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Pescara 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 30% | Pescara 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 68% | Draw 19% | Pescara 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Venezia 2.18 / Pescara 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.214 / def 0.971 | Pescara attack 0.810 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Venezia (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Pescara xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Pescara kick off?
Venezia vs Pescara kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Pescara?
Venezia 3 - 2 Pescara.
Where is Venezia vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Pescara part of?
Venezia vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 68% chance of winning, Pescara a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Venezia and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Pescara?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Pescara 0W.
What form are Venezia and Pescara in?
Venezia (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Pescara (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.21x the league average against Pescara's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pescara's attack (0.81x) against Venezia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.13
13%
7.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.02
0.84
Pescara xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
7.75
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
1%
68.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Venezia and 0.84 for Pescara, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Pescara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia come into this having played 25 games, going 16W 5D 4L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pescara sit at 0.72 PPG from 25 outings (3W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Pescara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Venezia's home form reads 10W 0D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Pescara have taken 0.58 points per game from 12 outings (1W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.12 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 64%.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Pescara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Pescara in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 16W 5D 4L in their last 25 games (2.12 PPG), while Pescara have gone 3W 9D 13L in their last 25 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Pescara away?
Venezia's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.50 PPG; Pescara away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Venezia or Pescara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Pescara in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Pescara have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Venezia 3-2 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Pescara?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 42%, Pescara 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Venezia and 67% for Pescara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Pescara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Venezia's recent matches and 67% of Pescara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Venezia's matches and 67% of Pescara's.
Do Venezia and Pescara tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Pescara in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Pescara 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Pescara 3-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.18 xG and Pescara 0.84 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pescara outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Pescara attack 0.81 / defence 1.42, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 68% | Draw 19% | Pescara 13%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 64%, Pescara 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pescara's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.