Venezia 2-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Monday 26 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Venezia, 1.30 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Parma — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Parma 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Parma 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.90 xG and Parma 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.929 / defence 1.291 | Parma attack 0.988 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.085. Data: 18 Venezia games / 56 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 22% | Draw 32% | Parma 46%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 2.17. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 60% | Parma 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 22% | Draw 32% | Parma 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Venezia 0.90 / Parma 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.929 / def 1.291 | Parma attack 0.988 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Parma xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Parma kick off?
Venezia vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Parma?
Venezia 2 - 2 Parma.
Where is Venezia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Parma part of?
Venezia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 22% chance of winning, Parma a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Venezia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Parma in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Parma (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.93x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.99x) against Venezia's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
22%
4.50
32%
3.15
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.28
1.38
Parma xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
6%
17.95
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Venezia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Venezia and 1.38 for Parma, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 11W 13D 32L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 18W 21D 17L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Venezia have posted 0.78 PPG from 27 outings (5W 6D 16L).
On the road, Parma have gone 8W 11D 8L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.27 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Parma in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 11W 13D 32L in their last 56 games (0.82 PPG), while Parma have gone 18W 21D 17L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.78 PPG; Parma away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Venezia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
3
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Parma have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Parma 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 44% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 37%; Venezia have failed to score in 26% of games; Parma in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Venezia's games and 48% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 44% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Parma tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Parma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Parma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia and Parma finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.90 xG and Parma 1.38 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.93 / defence 1.29 against Parma attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 22% | Draw 32% | Parma 46%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Parma 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.