Venezia 2-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Venezia (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Venezia face Palermo.

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Match Analysis

Venezia host Palermo at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals). Kick-off is Friday 24 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Venezia — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Venezia at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Palermo have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Palermo's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Venezia are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 60% of Palermo's (from Venezia's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Venezia: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Palermo, with 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2024, ended Venezia 1–0 Palermo — a Venezia win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Venezia and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).

Palermo in-play and half-time data (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 63% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 60% | Palermo 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Palermo surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.94 xG and Palermo 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.390 / defence 1.106 | Palermo attack 1.069 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.166. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.390 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 76 games and Palermo's last 76.

Result probabilities: Venezia 49% | Draw 25% | Palermo 26%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.03 | Draw 4.04 | Palermo 3.85. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games).

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