Venezia 3-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Mantova meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mantova (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Mantova's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mantova — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 51% versus Mantova 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 47% | Mantova 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.55 xG and Mantova 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.317 / defence 0.906 | Mantova attack 0.750 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.071. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Venezia games / 51 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 55% | Draw 30% | Mantova 15%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Mantova 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 50% | Mantova 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 55% | Draw 30% | Mantova 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Venezia 1.55 / Mantova 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.317 / def 0.906 | Mantova attack 0.750 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Venezia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Mantova xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Mantova kick off?
Venezia vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Mantova?
Venezia 3 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Venezia vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Mantova part of?
Venezia vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 55% chance of winning, Mantova a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Venezia and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Mantova in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Mantova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.32x the league average against Mantova's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.75x) against Venezia's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.31
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.27
0.73
Mantova xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
3%
30.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Venezia and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Venezia and 0.73 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia come into this having played 51 games, going 11W 18D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.14 PPG from 51 outings (14W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Venezia against 1.14 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Venezia's home form reads 10W 5D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 0.68 points per game from 25 outings (3W 8D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.18 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Mantova in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 11W 18D 22L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Mantova have gone 14W 16D 21L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Mantova away?
Venezia's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.40 PPG; Mantova away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Mantova have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Mantova 2-5 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Mantova?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 44%, Mantova 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Venezia) and 52% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 36% of games; Mantova in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Venezia's recent matches and 60% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Venezia's recent games and 52% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Mantova tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mantova in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Mantova 3-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.55 xG and Mantova 0.73 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.32 / defence 0.91 against Mantova attack 0.75 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 55% | Draw 30% | Mantova 15%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 47%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Mantova's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.00 PPG, Mantova 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.