Venezia 3-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Juve Stabia meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Juve Stabia's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Juve Stabia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Juve Stabia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.85 xG and Juve Stabia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.319 / defence 0.934 | Juve Stabia attack 0.881 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Venezia games / 70 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 17%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Juve Stabia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 40% | Juve Stabia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Venezia 1.85 / Juve Stabia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.319 / def 0.934 | Juve Stabia attack 0.881 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Venezia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Juve Stabia xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Venezia vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Juve Stabia?
Venezia 3 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Venezia vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Juve Stabia part of?
Venezia vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 58% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Venezia and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Venezia and Juve Stabia in?
Venezia (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.88x) against Venezia's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.95
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.75
0.91
Juve Stabia xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
38.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Venezia and 0.91 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Juve Stabia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 25W 22D 23L from 70 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 24W 27D 19L across 70 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Venezia against 1.41 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 19W 5D 10L from 34 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 6W 15D 13L across 34 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.13 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 22D 23L in their last 70 games (1.39 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 24W 27D 19L in their last 70 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Juve Stabia away?
Venezia's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.82 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Venezia or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Venezia 3-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Juve Stabia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 44%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 50% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Venezia have failed to score in 26% of games; Juve Stabia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Venezia's recent matches and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Venezia's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Juve Stabia 3-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.85 xG and Juve Stabia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.32 / defence 0.93 against Juve Stabia attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 58% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 17%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.39 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.