Venezia 2-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Empoli (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Empoli's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Venezia's favour (2.20 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Venezia, 0 for Empoli and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Empoli 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 51% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.21 xG and Empoli 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.358 / defence 0.956 | Empoli attack 0.815 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.097. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Venezia games / 35 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 67% | Draw 22% | Empoli 12%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Empoli 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 50% | Empoli 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 67% | Draw 22% | Empoli 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Venezia 2.21 / Empoli 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.358 / def 0.956 | Empoli attack 0.815 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Venezia (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Empoli xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Empoli kick off?
Venezia vs Empoli kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Empoli?
Venezia 2 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Venezia vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Empoli part of?
Venezia vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 67% chance of winning, Empoli a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 4 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Venezia and Empoli in?
Venezia (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Empoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.36) and Empoli's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.81x) against Venezia's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.60
12%
8.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.06
0.85
Empoli xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
8.62
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
1%
78.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Venezia and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Venezia and 0.85 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 73 games, going 27W 23D 23L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.93 PPG from 73 outings (14W 26D 33L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 20W 5D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.89 points per game from 36 outings (8W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.05 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Empoli in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 27W 23D 23L in their last 73 games (1.42 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 26D 33L in their last 73 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Empoli away?
Venezia's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.81 PPG; Empoli away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Venezia
4
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Empoli have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Empoli?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 44%, Empoli 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 58% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Venezia have failed to score in 28% of games; Empoli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Venezia's recent matches and 61% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Venezia's recent games and 58% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Empoli tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Empoli in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Empoli 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.21 xG and Empoli 0.85 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Empoli landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Empoli attack 0.81 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 67% | Draw 22% | Empoli 12%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Empoli 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.