Ternana 0-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Brescia meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati.
Brescia (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ternana 0W, Brescia 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 60% versus Brescia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.61 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.958 / defence 0.834 | Brescia attack 1.057 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.104. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Ternana games / 50 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 51% | Draw 27% | Brescia 22%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Brescia 4.55. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 40% | Brescia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 51% | Draw 27% | Brescia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Ternana 1.61 / Brescia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.958 / def 0.834 | Brescia attack 1.057 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Ternana (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Brescia xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Brescia kick off?
Ternana vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Brescia?
Ternana 0 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Ternana vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Brescia part of?
Ternana vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 51% chance of winning, Brescia a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ternana and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Brescia?
Record (2 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Ternana and Brescia in?
Ternana (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Brescia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.96) and Brescia's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (1.06x) against Ternana's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.68
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.58
0.97
Brescia xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
4%
22.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Ternana and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Ternana and 0.97 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 12D 17L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.58 PPG from 50 outings (20W 19D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Ternana against 1.58 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 12W 4D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.32 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Brescia in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Brescia have gone 20W 19D 11L in their last 50 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Brescia away?
Ternana's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.67 PPG; Brescia away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Ternana or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Brescia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ternana
3
Draws
3
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Brescia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Brescia 0-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 42%, Brescia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ternana) and 38% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ternana's recent matches and 54% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ternana's recent games and 38% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Brescia tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Brescia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ternana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 13, as Ternana and Brescia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.61 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ternana fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Brescia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against Brescia attack 1.06 / defence 1.34, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 51% | Draw 27% | Brescia 22%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brescia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.50 PPG, Brescia 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.