Sudtirol 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sudtirol take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Modena at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Modena — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Modena are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sudtirol, 3 for Modena and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Modena 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Modena 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.94 xG and Modena 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.740 / defence 0.930 | Modena attack 0.981 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.099. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Sudtirol games / 70 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 35% | Modena 34%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Modena 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Modena 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 35% | Modena 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Sudtirol 0.94 / Modena 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.740 / def 0.930 | Modena attack 0.981 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Modena xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Modena kick off?
Sudtirol vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Sudtirol vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Modena part of?
Sudtirol vs Modena is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 31% chance of winning, Modena a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sudtirol and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
Record (7 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 3 | Modena 3W.
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Modena (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.74) and Modena's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.26
35%
2.84
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.94
1.00
Modena xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.00 for Modena, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 19W 25D 26L from 70 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 24W 23D 23L across 70 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.17 PPG, Modena on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 10W 12D 12L from 34 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 10W 11D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.30 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 19W 25D 26L in their last 70 games (1.17 PPG), while Modena have gone 24W 23D 23L in their last 70 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Modena away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.24 PPG; Modena away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Modena in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
4
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Modena have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 62%, Modena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 41% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 29% of games; Modena in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sudtirol's games and 50% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 41% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Modena tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Modena in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Modena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.94 xG and Modena 1.00 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.74 / defence 0.93 against Modena attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 31% | Draw 35% | Modena 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Modena 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.17 PPG, Modena 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.