Sudtirol 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Modena at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 7). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sudtirol stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Modena — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sudtirol 1.60 PPG, Modena 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Sudtirol, 2 for Modena and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended Sudtirol 1–2 Modena — a Modena win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Modena in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 46% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 26% | Modena 44%). Note also that Modena surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 80% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Modena 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.268 / defence 1.135 | Modena attack 1.007 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.198. Sudtirol carry an above-average attack rating of 1.268 — their 1.57 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 43 games and Modena's last 43.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 40% | Draw 29% | Modena 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Modena 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 50% (last 10 home games) | Modena 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 40% | Draw 29% | Modena 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Sudtirol 1.57 / Modena 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.268 / def 1.135 | Modena attack 1.007 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Modena xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Modena kick off?
Sudtirol vs Modena kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Modena.
Where is Sudtirol vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Modena part of?
Sudtirol vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 40% chance of winning, Modena a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sudtirol and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sudtirol vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (1.27) and Modena's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 43 games and Modena's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.45
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.94
1.37
Modena xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.37 for Modena, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 18W 19D 6L from 43 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 16L across 43 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.70 PPG, Modena on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 8W 11D 2L from their last 21 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 7W 2D 12L across their last 21 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.23 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
Sudtirol (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 18W 19D 6L in their last 43 games (1.70 PPG), while Modena have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Modena away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.67 PPG; Modena away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Modena in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
5
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 1, Modena have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 57%, Modena 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sudtirol) and 62% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Modena matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sudtirol's games and 62% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sudtirol and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sudtirol's recent games and 62% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 76% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Modena finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Modena 1.37 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Modena landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.27 / defence 1.14 against Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 40% | Draw 29% | Modena 31%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 26%, Modena 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Modena's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.70 PPG, Modena 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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