Sudtirol 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Modena at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Modena — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sudtirol 1.60 PPG, Modena 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sudtirol, 2 for Modena and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Modena in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 46% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 26% | Modena 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Modena 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.268 / defence 1.135 | Modena attack 1.007 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.198. Sudtirol carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Sudtirol games / 43 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 40% | Draw 29% | Modena 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Modena 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 40% | Draw 29% | Modena 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Sudtirol 1.57 / Modena 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.268 / def 1.135 | Modena attack 1.007 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Modena xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Modena kick off?
Sudtirol vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Modena.
Where is Sudtirol vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Modena part of?
Sudtirol vs Modena is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 40% chance of winning, Modena a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sudtirol and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 0 | Modena 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Modena (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (1.27) and Modena's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.45
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.94
1.37
Modena xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.37 for Modena, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 18W 19D 6L from 43 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 16L across 43 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.70 PPG, Modena on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 8W 11D 2L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 7W 2D 12L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.23 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Modena in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 18W 19D 6L in their last 43 games (1.70 PPG), while Modena have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Modena away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.67 PPG; Modena away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Modena in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
4
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Modena have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 57%, Modena 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sudtirol) and 62% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sudtirol's games and 62% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sudtirol's recent games and 62% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Modena tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Modena in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Modena finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Modena 1.37 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Modena landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.27 / defence 1.14 against Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 40% | Draw 29% | Modena 31%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 26%, Modena 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Modena's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.70 PPG, Modena 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.