Sudtirol 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Genoa at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Genoa have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Genoa away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Genoa — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 0, Genoa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 44% versus Genoa 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 26% | Genoa 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.98 xG and Genoa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.901 / defence 1.023 | Genoa attack 1.096 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 0.992. Data: 34 Sudtirol games / 34 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 33% | Genoa 37%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Genoa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Genoa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 33% | Genoa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 0.98 / Genoa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.901 / def 1.023 | Genoa attack 1.096 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.107 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Genoa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Genoa xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Genoa kick off?
Sudtirol vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Genoa?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Sudtirol vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Genoa part of?
Sudtirol vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 30% chance of winning, Genoa a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 0 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Genoa in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
30%
3.34
33%
3.01
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.09
1.11
Genoa xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.11 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 14D 7L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.97 PPG from 34 outings (19W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sudtirol's home form reads 6W 8D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.82 points per game from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.32 scored and 0.62 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Genoa in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Genoa in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 13W 14D 7L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while Genoa have gone 19W 10D 5L in their last 34 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.53 PPG; Genoa away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Genoa in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Genoa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
1
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Sudtirol 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 65%, Genoa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sudtirol) and 53% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 35%; Genoa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sudtirol's games and 47% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sudtirol's recent games and 53% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Genoa tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Genoa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.98 xG and Genoa 1.11 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Genoa attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 30% | Draw 33% | Genoa 37%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 26%, Genoa 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.