Spezia 2-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Spezia welcome Palermo to Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Spezia — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Spezia at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Spezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palermo stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Spezia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Spezia have won 1, Palermo 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2024, ended Spezia 0–2 Palermo — a Palermo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 45% versus Palermo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 42% | Palermo 48%). Note also that Palermo surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Spezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.69 xG and Palermo 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.258 / defence 0.799 | Palermo attack 0.925 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.095. Spezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.258 — their 1.69 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Spezia have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling Palermo's projected output down. Data: built from Spezia's last 62 games and Palermo's last 62.
Result probabilities: Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.76 | Draw 3.70 | Palermo 6.15. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Spezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Spezia 1.69 / Palermo 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.258 / def 0.799 | Palermo attack 0.925 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Spezia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Palermo xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Palermo kick off?
Spezia vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Palermo?
Spezia 2 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Spezia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Palermo part of?
Spezia vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 57% chance of winning, Palermo a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Spezia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spezia's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 62 games and Palermo's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.70
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.50
0.81
Palermo xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
3%
33.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Spezia and 0.81 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 26D 14L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.32 PPG from 62 outings (22W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.48 PPG, Palermo on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Spezia's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across their last 30 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.35 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Palermo
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 22W 26D 14L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Palermo have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Palermo away?
Spezia's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.77 PPG; Palermo away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Spezia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palermo in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Palermo have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Spezia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
2
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Palermo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 1, Palermo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: Palermo 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 70% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 50%, Palermo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Spezia) and 47% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Palermo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Spezia's games and 60% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Spezia and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Spezia's recent games and 47% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Spezia's recent matches and 73% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Palermo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, as Spezia and Palermo drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.69 xG and Palermo 0.81 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.26 / defence 0.80 against Palermo attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.48 PPG, Palermo 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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