Spezia 0-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Spezia take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Cosenza meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cosenza have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Cosenza arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 46% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 50% | Cosenza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.70 xG and Cosenza 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.630 / defence 0.986 | Cosenza attack 0.785 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.178. Spezia's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Spezia games / 48 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 24% | Draw 40% | Cosenza 36%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 4.17 | Draw 2.50 | Cosenza 2.78. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Spezia's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 30% | Cosenza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 24% | Draw 40% | Cosenza 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 32% | xG Spezia 0.70 / Cosenza 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.630 / def 0.986 | Cosenza attack 0.785 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cosenza xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Cosenza kick off?
Spezia vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Cosenza?
Spezia 0 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Spezia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Cosenza part of?
Spezia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 24% chance of winning, Cosenza a 36% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Spezia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Cosenza in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spezia's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.79x) against Spezia's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 9/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.18
40%
2.51
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.61
0.91
Cosenza xG
4.18
24%
Home win
2.51
40%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 18.3 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Spezia and 0.91 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spezia's recent record stands at 7W 17D 24L from 48 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 20L across 48 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Spezia against 1.08 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 4W 10D 10L from 24 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 3W 8D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.90 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 7W 17D 24L in their last 48 games (0.79 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Cosenza away?
Spezia's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.92 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
3
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Spezia 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Cosenza?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 46%, Cosenza 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 33% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games; Cosenza in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Spezia's recent matches and 46% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spezia's recent games and 33% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Cosenza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.70 xG and Cosenza 0.91 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.63 / defence 0.99 against Cosenza attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 24% | Draw 40% | Cosenza 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 50%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.79 PPG, Cosenza 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.