Spal 1-3 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Spal welcome Reggina to Stadio Paolo Mazza. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reggina — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reggina have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Spal are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Spal, 1 for Reggina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Reggina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggina trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 54% versus Reggina 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spal 46% | Reggina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.16 xG and Reggina 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 0.973 / defence 1.321 | Reggina attack 0.582 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.133. Reggina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Spal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Spal games / 22 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 39% | Draw 37% | Reggina 24%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Reggina 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spal as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Spal 80% | Reggina 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 39% | Draw 37% | Reggina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Spal 1.16 / Reggina 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 0.973 / def 1.321 | Reggina attack 0.582 / def 1.232 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Spal (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Reggina xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Reggina kick off?
Spal vs Reggina kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Reggina?
Spal 1 - 3 Reggina.
Where is Spal vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Reggina part of?
Spal vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 39% chance of winning, Reggina a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Spal and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Spal and Reggina in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Reggina (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spal's attack at 0.97x the league average against Reggina's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
39%
2.56
37%
2.71
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Spal xG
Total xG
2.03
0.87
Reggina xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Spal and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Spal and 0.87 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spal come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 8D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggina sit at 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.05 PPG, Reggina on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Spal's home form reads 2W 5D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggina have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.77 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Reggina in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Reggina have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Reggina away?
Reggina's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.00 PPG; Reggina away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Spal's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
0
Draws
3
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Reggina have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Reggina 0-1 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Reggina?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 73%, Reggina 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 54% for Spal and 9% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Reggina in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Spal's recent matches and 27% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Spal's recent games and 9% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Reggina tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Reggina in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggina cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Spal 1-3 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.16 xG and Reggina 0.87 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Reggina outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 0.97 / defence 1.32 against Reggina attack 0.58 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 39% | Draw 37% | Reggina 24%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Reggina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 46%, Reggina 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Reggina's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.05 PPG, Reggina 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.