Sassuolo 2-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palermo make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season.
Palermo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Sassuolo's favour (2.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Palermo — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 58% versus Palermo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 53% | Palermo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.77 xG and Palermo 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.527 / defence 0.920 | Palermo attack 0.957 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.083. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.527 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Sassuolo games / 55 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 54% | Draw 28% | Palermo 18%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Palermo 5.56. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 40% | Palermo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 54% | Draw 28% | Palermo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Sassuolo 1.77 / Palermo 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.527 / def 0.920 | Palermo attack 0.957 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Palermo kick off?
Sassuolo vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Palermo?
Sassuolo 2 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Sassuolo vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Palermo part of?
Sassuolo vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 54% chance of winning, Palermo a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sassuolo and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Palermo in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (1.53) and Palermo's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.96x) against Sassuolo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.55
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.73
0.95
Palermo xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
33.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.95 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 20L across 55 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.33 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 11W 6D 10L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 9W 9D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.38 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Palermo in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Palermo have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Palermo away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.44 PPG; Palermo away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
0
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Palermo 5-3 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 56%, Palermo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sassuolo) and 41% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Palermo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sassuolo's games and 56% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sassuolo's recent games and 41% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Palermo tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Palermo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Palermo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Palermo 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.77 xG and Palermo 0.95 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.53 / defence 0.92 against Palermo attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 54% | Draw 28% | Palermo 18%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 53%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.27 PPG, Palermo 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.