Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Virtus Entella at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Sampdoria haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Virtus Entella haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sampdoria at 1.40 PPG versus Virtus Entella's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sampdoria's 30% rate and Virtus Entella's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Virtus Entella and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 50% versus Virtus Entella 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 40% | Virtus Entella 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.40 xG and Virtus Entella 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.890 / defence 0.980 | Virtus Entella attack 0.837 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Sampdoria games / 38 Virtus Entella games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 48% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 22%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Virtus Entella 4.55. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Virtus Entella 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 48% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Sampdoria 1.40 / Virtus Entella 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.890 / def 0.980 | Virtus Entella attack 0.837 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Virtus Entella xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella part of?
Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 48% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sampdoria and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.89x the league average against Virtus Entella's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.34
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.28
0.88
Virtus Entella xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.88 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 11W 11D 16L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. Sampdoria haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Virtus Entella's form line: 10W 12D 16L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. Virtus Entella haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.16 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 1W 5D 13L from 19 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.95 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Pre-Season
Virtus Entella
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Virtus Entella away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.68 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-1 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Virtus Entella?
Virtus Entella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 42%, Virtus Entella 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Sampdoria and 32% for Virtus Entella.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 32% of games; Virtus Entella in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 37% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sampdoria's recent games and 32% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.