Pordenone 2-4 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vicenza Virtus make the trip to Stadio Guido Teghil to face Pordenone in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Pordenone (all games): 0W 1D 5L across 6 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.17 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pordenone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pordenone have posted 0W 1D 2L at Stadio Guido Teghil — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Vicenza Virtus have collected 0.00 PPG across 6 Serie B outings this season: 0W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vicenza Virtus's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 3L across 3 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.17 for Pordenone, 0.00 for Vicenza Virtus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Pordenone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 33% versus Vicenza Virtus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 50% | Vicenza Virtus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.99 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.682 / defence 1.361 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.834 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.319. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Pordenone games / 6 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 28% | Vicenza Virtus 48%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Vicenza Virtus 2.08. Vicenza Virtus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vicenza Virtus are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pordenone 33% | Vicenza Virtus 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 28% | Vicenza Virtus 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Pordenone 0.99 / Vicenza Virtus 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.682 / def 1.361 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.834 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Vicenza Virtus xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Pordenone 2 - 4 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 24% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 0W-0D-6L in 6 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pordenone's attack rating (0.68) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.83x) against Pordenone's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
24%
4.14
28%
3.59
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.49
1.50
Vicenza Virtus xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
5%
18.51
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.50 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pordenone come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 1D 5L for 0.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Pordenone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vicenza Virtus sit at 0.00 PPG from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.17 PPG for Pordenone against 0.00 for Vicenza Virtus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Pordenone's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Vicenza Virtus have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pordenone are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 0D 6L in their last 6 (0.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Pordenone's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.33 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
0
Draws
2
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Vicenza Virtus have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 1-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus?
Vicenza Virtus have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 33%, Vicenza Virtus 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pordenone) and 67% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 67% of games; Vicenza Virtus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pordenone's recent matches and 67% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pordenone's recent games and 67% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vicenza Virtus cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Pordenone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus beat Pordenone 2-4 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.99 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.50 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Pordenone beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vicenza Virtus outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.68 / defence 1.36 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 24% | Draw 28% | Vicenza Virtus 48%, with Vicenza Virtus to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 50%, Vicenza Virtus 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pordenone 0.17 PPG, Vicenza Virtus 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vicenza Virtus win broke the near-deadlock. Pordenone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.