Pisa 0-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Ternana at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.80 PPG versus Ternana's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pisa, 0 for Ternana and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Ternana in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Ternana 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 24% | Ternana 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.23 xG and Ternana 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.983 / defence 1.042 | Ternana attack 0.979 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 0.954 / away 1.192. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Pisa games / 21 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 34% | Draw 33% | Ternana 33%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Ternana 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 34% | Draw 33% | Ternana 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Pisa 1.23 / Ternana 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.983 / def 1.042 | Ternana attack 0.979 / def 1.316 | league avg home 0.954 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Pisa (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ternana xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Ternana kick off?
Pisa vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Ternana?
Pisa 0 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Pisa vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pisa vs Ternana part of?
Pisa vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 34% chance of winning, Ternana a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pisa and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Pisa and Ternana in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Ternana (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
34%
2.94
33%
3.04
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.45
1.22
Ternana xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Pisa and 1.22 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 11W 7D 3L from 21 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 8L across 21 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 6W 3D 1L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 2W 5D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 62%.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Ternana in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 11W 7D 3L in their last 21 games (1.90 PPG), while Ternana have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Ternana away?
Pisa's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.10 PPG; Ternana away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Pisa or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ternana in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Pisa won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
2
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Ternana have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Pisa 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Ternana?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 50%, Ternana at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Pisa and 40% for Ternana.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pisa's games and 80% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Pisa's recent games and 40% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Ternana tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 22, as Pisa and Ternana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.23 xG and Ternana 1.22 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pisa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ternana landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.32, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 34% | Draw 33% | Ternana 33%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 24%, Ternana 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ternana's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.